Trump's Weapons Magic Show is Smoke & Mirrors Masterclass
Trump finally ‘wowed’ the world today with his grand announcement on punitive measures against Russia.
As usual, the announcement struck most as lackluster, with Russian markets jumping by nearly 3% in response. But let’s dig in to see whether there is actually more meat on the bone of Trump’s scary threats than people give credit for.
Firstly, the timing: Axios now reports that Putin allegedly told Trump he plans to ‘intensify’ the Russian summer offensive in the next 60 days, with the goal—according to some sources—purportedly being to capture the remainder of nominal Russian territory, i.e. Donetsk, Lugansk, and Zaporozhye oblasts.
Axios: According to Trump, Putin allegedly told him about plans to intensify the offensive in Ukraine in the next 60 days.
Trump shared details of the conversation with the Russian leader with his French counterpart Macron, adding: "He wants to take everything."
It was after this conversation, according to the publication, that Trump criticized Putin and promised to increase arms supplies to Ukraine.
If there’s any hint of truth to such reports, then Trump’s “50-day notice” would seem to line up with Putin’s timeline, given that the conversation happened days ago, and thus Putin’s “60-day plan” would fall almost precisely on Trump’s deadline.
The basic interpretation of that could be that Trump is giving Russia two months to capture whatever territory it claims belongs to it, then “the hammer” will come down.
Now on the weapons side, as always, is where the biggest cloud of ambiguity lies. No one seems to know precisely what weapons and from what package will be sent, but according to CNN, it all sounds like more of the same, but just ‘repackaged’ with a new price tag.
Reports indicate the same air-to-air missiles, howitzer and GMLRS rounds will be sent as before, but simply that now NATO countries will foot the bill. Prior to that, under Biden’s PDA, the US was sending weapons directly to Ukraine from its own stockpiles, and then replenishing those stockpiles with new orders to the MIC, from taxpayer funds. Now, it will come from European taxpayer funds—a win for the US, we must admit.
But the biggest focal point were the Patriot ‘systems’. Again, the cloud of confusion—no one quite knows what the numbers represent: Patriot launchers, batteries, battalions, etc. Trump once mentioned the word ‘batteries’, but the numbers being discussed do not appear to realistically jibe. For instance, he mentioned sending “17” to Ukraine, but the US itself only has something like a total 50-70 active batteries, and obviously sending a third of its entire Patriot stock is unlikely.
When you really read between the lines, what Trump appeared to say was that the eventual goal is to scrounge up a larger amount of ‘systems’ for Ukraine, but “initially” only a tiny fraction will be sent. This is one of the few commenters who grasped the nuances of the mealy-mouthed ‘announcement’:
Recall that Rubio just recently implied the US has no more Patriots to give, a video I posted several updates ago. He called on Europe to give their Patriots instead, but quelle surprise, in a new FT article German Defense Minister Pistorius admitted that Germany will not be sending any Patriots nor Taurus missiles:
You can see in the above, he goes on to say that Germany could purchase two systems from the US for Ukraine, instead. This is a kind of puerile shell game which is really meant to bolster the PR narrative that Ukraine is being ‘supported’ in order to keep hopes alive, so that the AFU doesn’t collapse from demoralization.
German Defense Minister Pistorius to Reuters:
Decision on two Patriots for Ukraine will be taken within days or weeks, but actual delivery of first system will take months.
In short: it’s a lot of hoopla to kick the can down the road again, repackaging the same policy with new fanfare.
The sanctions threat was likewise fraught with double-meaning. Trump called them ‘tariffs on Russia’, but in reality they are merely tariffs on US’ own allies:
Russia exports virtually nothing to the US which can be ‘tariffed’. The threat here is meaningless as these other heavyweights will not put up with Trump’s threat, forcing him to back away at the last moment as usual, then claiming “victory” after securing some other secondary fig leaf ‘deal’.
In conclusion: the entire charade appears to be a sneaky but brilliant act of jugglery by Trump, wherein he once again gives the appearance of major ‘action’ against Russia to silence critics and placate neocons, while in actuality doing little to further Ukraine’s war efforts, apart from plugging the previous status quo back onto life support. The act is meant to play both sides, relieving pressure on himself, while not overly risking his relationship with Putin in the hopes he can still clinch his big Pulitzer-earning armistice.
Notably, top-shelf items like JASSM missiles were all absent from the discussion, contrary to high-octane predictions from the peanut gallery the day before. Likewise, in the earlier-mentioned FT article, Pistorius once again categorically rejected—for the umpteenth time—the sending of Taurus missiles to Ukraine:
So, what are we left with? Essentially, the resumption of Biden’s PDA status quo with an ambiguous new promise of “a few” Patriot launchers, which is more a preliminary call to look for some potential launchers among allies.
When asked what would happen after the 50 day mark if Putin refuses to back down, Trump told a reporter: “Don’t ask me that question.”
The bigger question is whether Trump has now officially taken ownership of the war, despite his feeble attempts to impute his continued failings to Biden; many think so. But I still suspect Trump is trying his hardest to playact the stern and impatient taskmaster to signal ‘toughness’ against Putin for his deep state audience, all while actually trying not to do too much damage to US-Russian relations.
For instance, ‘senior officials’ told FT just two days ago that Trump still views Zelensky as the primary obstacle to peace:
That would likely make his ‘anger’ at Putin a put-on.
Intermezzo:
Ex-Russian prime minister Sergei Stepashin has a stark message for Germany, amidst all the militarization threats:
Moscow 'knows location' of German missile plants as Merz plans to hand Zelensky the bombs to hit 'center of Russia' — ex-PM Stepashin
Given that all the Trump-Ukraine weapons antics are merely an attempt to front-run and offlet some steam from the Russian summer offensives, let us now turn to frontline news:
Starting in western Zaporozhye Russian forces took over the remainder of Kamyanske:
East of there, Russian forces liberated ‘Myrne’, a settlement whose Russian name is Karl Marx:
Mercenaries thought they were going on safari, but it turned out to be a war: how the Russian army liberated the settlement of Karl Marx
➖A scout with the call sign "Husky" spoke about the liberation of the settlement of Karl Marx in the DPR:
▪️ What role do "birds" play in assault operations – 00:11
▪️ How foreign mercenaries were captured – 00:30
This settlement is just to the west of Gulyaipole:
And to the east of it, you can see Malinovka, whose complete liberation by Russian forces was also just announced:
The 1466th Motor Rifle Regiment and the 3rd Battalion of the 114th Motor Rifle Regiment, operating under Task Force "Vostok," have liberated the village of Malinovka in the Zaporozhye direction.
The battle for Malinovka was long, bloody, and exhausting. Both sides suffered heavy casualties in the fierce fighting. But in the end, the Russian flag was raised over the village.
Having secured this foothold, Task Force "Vostok" is now regrouping and preparing for the next move.
Further northeast on the Velyka Novosilka line, you’ll recall Russian forces had recently captured Poddubne. Now they have expanded north to capture Tolstoi and some of Novokhatske:
Some sources claim Novokhatske is already taken and they’ve even moved farther to Zeleni Hai, as follows:
But there’s no official confirmation yet and we won’t jump the gun.
The most talked about direction has been the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration, where Russian forces made a critical breakthrough according to some reports:
⚡️Russian troops broke through four kilometers in the Pokrovsk direction and took control of the sludge ponds of the Mirnogradskaya Central Processing Plant, the Telegram channel Slivochny Kapriz reports, citing georeferences.
The below shows geolocated footage of Russian forces advancing past Razine toward Rodinske:
The reason this is particularly important is that it would put Russian forces in striking distance of one of the last remaining supply arteries to the entire agglomeration.
Here’s a better view and explanation. Below, the yellow circles show one of two main supply routes feeding this entire gigantic fortress-agglomeration that includes both Pokrovsk and Mirnograd:
If Russian forces obtain fire control of the yellow route, the vast supply chain for the agglomeration falls onto the last route in the red circle. That means this entire area’s logistics will become compressed into a single route which will put it under tremendous strain, particularly as Russian forces get closer to this last route and eventually put it too under fire control.
Another report:
DivGen reports that all supply roads going into the Pokrovsk - Mirnograd agglomeration are now within 🇷🇺FPV drone range
In short, Ukrainian losses in this area’s rear stand to go through the roof.
More detailed report:
According to available data, initial information about the breakthrough of the defense line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Rodinsky area is confirmed.
The front in the northeast of Pokrovsk collapsed in the area of responsibility of the 14th Operational Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, which, according to operational data, actually lost the ability to organize defense. The depth of the breakthrough of the Russian Federation, presumably, reached 5 km, the advanced units of the Russian 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 57th Motorized Rifle Regiment have already reached the eastern outskirts of Rodinsky, from where no more than 4 km remains to the city center.
The breakthrough, judging by some reports, became possible due to the poor adaptation of the terrain to defense. The section between Razino and Fedorovka is open fields. The Russian tactics have remained the same: reconnaissance identifies vulnerable areas, after which assault groups numerically outnumber the defenders are brought in. Due to this, a local advantage is created, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot compensate.
The Ukrainian command made an attempt to stabilize the front by maneuvering reserves: units of at least four different assault units were urgently transferred there, one of which was brought in from the Kherson direction, and the second from the Sumy direction. This corresponds to the actions according to the Sumy scenario, where the reserves worked as a fire brigade, but in this case the effect could not be achieved.
There were some other advances but we’ll leave it at these main ones for now.
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Let’s cover a few last disparate items:
In the spirit of ‘better late than never’, more aircraft shelters are going up in Russian airbases according to new satellite images:
Images of aircraft shelters at the Khalino airfield in the Kursk region and Saki in Crimea, published by the British Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
British "analysts" write that this construction is linked to the success of the Ukrainian operation "Spiderweb", however, in reality, the construction of shelters for aviation at many Russian airfields began last autumn.
Military Informant
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One other note on Trump’s sanctimonious condemnations of Russia. In a historic case of hypocrisy, he presumes to accuse Putin of double dealing by ‘talking nice’ then abruptly bombing Ukraine:
Pot, meet kettle.
Trump is speaking into a mirror. This is literally what he himself did to Iran, his administration openly boasting about the ‘ruse’ to lull Iran with ‘talks’ before launching a criminal attack on it.
That’s not to mention his attack was essentially a nuclear one: provided Iran’s nuclear materials were present at the site, and given the site’s proximity to Tehran, one could venture to accuse Trump of attempting a nuclear genocide of civilians.
The hubris of exceptionalism is boundless.
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Speaking of Iran, newly leaked images from the ground have revealed Iran’s strikes on the US Al-Udeid base in Qatar hit the expensive US communications complex there with shocking precision:
Here’s a “before” photo to match the location:
Iran’s June 23 missile strike on the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar destroyed a radar installation. The radar dome was visibly burned, and an adjacent structure sustained damage—contradicting Pentagon claims that all missiles were intercepted and no damage occurred.
New images also reveal the destruction of the U.S. military’s “Modernized Enterprise Terminal” — a hardened wideband satellite communications system — as a result of the IRGC Aerospace Force strike.
The target, the now destroyed Modern Entreprise Terminal (MET) was installed at the base in 2016 at a cost of $15 million and provided secure communication capabilities including voice, video and data services, linking service members in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility with military leaders around the world.
Recall ‘truth’-seeker Trump claimed all missiles were valiantly shot down by the peerless “Patriot” system.
It opens the pandora’s box of questions regarding how accurate the remainder of Iran’s strikes against Israel really were…?
Telegraph revealed some of the secrets:
They write:
Iranian missiles appear to have directly hit five Israeli military facilities during the recent 12-day war, according to radar data seen by The Telegraph.
The strikes have not been made public by the Israeli authorities and cannot be reported from within the country because of strict military censorship laws.
On the other hand, Israel claimed to have destroyed “200 out of 400” Iranian missile launchers:
“Iran had about 400 launchers, and we destroyed more than 200 of them, which caused a bottleneck in their missile operations,” an Israeli military official said on Thursday
They added: “We assessed that Iran had approximately 2,000 to 2,500 ballistic missiles at the beginning of this conflict. However, they were rapidly moving toward a mass-production strategy, which could see their missile stockpile grow to 8,000 or even 20,000 missiles in the next few years.”
But several independent OSINT analyses counting each link-sourced hit actually found somewhere between 20 to 40 destroyed, which would represent 5-10% of Iran’s total:
Someone meticulously counted the number of Iranian missile launchers hit during the war with Israel, based on publicly released Israeli airstrike footage. According to his tally, there were 20 destroyed, 4 damaged, 9 empty or decoy launchers, and 12 repeated clips.
By my own calculations, Israel likely struck around 30–40 launchers in total, though I’m also including a number of stationary or retractable launchers that appear to have been hit at missile bases, based on satellite imagery.
For context, Israel had estimated Iran’s inventory of medium-range ballistic missile launchers at around 400 units, though in my opinion, the actual number could be even higher.
The Telegraph article quotes the IRGC’s deputy commander-in-chief as saying that Iran’s famous underground “missile cities” were not even yet tapped during the brief conflict:
Maj Gen Fazli claimed that underground “cities” of missiles remained untouched in Iran.
“We have not yet opened the doors of even one of our missile cities,” he claimed on Thursday.
“We assess that so far only about 25 to 30 per cent of existing missile capability has been used and, at the same time, the production cycle is powerfully supporting this operational capacity.”
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New report about Russian drone innovations:
We talked to our sources, who told us that the Russians, based on Geran/Shahed drones, are creating an army of long-distance drone delivery [systems] (so-called queens) with mandatory return.
The principle of operation is simple. The main Geranium drone will carry 2-3 FPVs, and itself will act as a signal delivery and repeater. For example, Geran is sent to the Dnepr Krivoy Rog highway; it throws out FPVs above it, which catch moving equipment/vehicles on the highway.
This is a future mass trend. Now drones carry out logistics only at a distance of 20 kilometers from the LBS, but soon it will be everywhere.
Already Russians are mass-producing Geran-3, which it has become a big problem for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The Ukrainian crisis is driving the rapid development of military technology.
On that note, Ukraine’s top radio-electronics and drone expert Serhiy ‘Flash’ Beskrestnov gives an update on Russian drone usage: